In a research note sent to the investment bank’s clients Thursday, analyst Michael Graham and associates Matthew Volpe and Alexander Frankiewicz predicted a return to bitcoin’s stratospheric late-2017 high over the next 24 months.
Now four months into 2019, we note for the third time the striking similarity in bitcoin’s price action between 2011-2015 and 2015-2019. While this simple pattern recognition has little fundamental basis, we note that bitcoin does operate on a four-year cycle of sorts, as the halving of bitcoin’s mining reward occurs approximately every four years. Bitcoin has started to form the spring 2019 bottom we began mentioning last year, although a close look at the chart suggests the recovery may be slightly ahead of itself. Looking ahead, if bitcoin were to continue following the same trend, the implication is a slow climb back toward its all-time high of ~$20,000, theoretically reaching that level in March 2021.
The analysts also noted more movement in the crypto markets, saying that about “7 million bitcoins have been shaken out of ‘Cold’ (not active for at least six months) status and have begun trading hands again.”
Since no one knows what the future holds, the analysts overlaid two past performances over each other, noting that with each halving of the block reward, the bitcoin price rose dramatically. The next halving is expected in 2020.
The team also points to increased Wall Street interest in cryptocurrency as a catalyst for price growth, writing:
Perhaps most important is Fidelity’s continued push into the space. After the asset management giant launched Fidelity Digital Assets last October and a custody service in March, numerous reports suggest the launch of an institutional digital assets trading business within the next few weeks. Fidelity also released a survey of 411 US institutional investors which found that 40% are open to owning digital assets within the next five years. Another factor may be Grayscale’s “Drop Gold” advertising campaign, which hit airwaves recently and targets digitally native investor base that may prefer bitcoin to gold as a non-government store of value investment. Yet another could be several corporate crypto initiatives from the likes of Facebook, Nike, and others gaining attention in the media.
The Cannacord analysts’ bottom line: It’s looking good.